Dear Mr.Editor,
                           I must confess to reading the book of The Gambia from back to front.Certainly,like many good intentioned British visitors to your country,I was little concerned with the local politics and more concerned with the condition of its long suffering citizens.My response to the plea from The Honourable Mayor of Banjul for better trade relations between the U.K. and Gambia was well provided for by the offices of Her Majesties Government.The fact remains that it was the Gambian Government that scuppered every trade inititive that I instigated.I have countless letters here from British investors that fell on the stoney ground of the opportunists highlighting their losses and their frustration.
It therefore gives me little comfort to brag about my prediction on these pages some 12 months ago that The Gambia would become just another victim of a Global recession that has not not been seen before in such living memory.This prediction was well in advance of rising oil prices and the Sub Prime Mortgage fiasco, allied to a growing world shortage of food.
Let me itemise some of the economic tsunamies that are presently sweeping the world.
The Governer of The Bank of England, recently pronounced" the good decade was over"
The western economies have had unprecidented growth for 10 years.This has mainly been fueled by cheap goods eminating from China and the Far East and Japan, which in turn created many off spins and service industries for the west.However this was accompanied by a decline in the wests manufacturing industries.In essence, the much lower industrial costs of Far Eastern  manufacturing companies mean't that it was cheaper to import finished goods than to compete for their manufacture.
The easing of barriers to world trade and foriegn investment,that was presented by the fall of communisism, has seen a flood of western investment into the relitively, untapped wealth  of China and Russia.In Siberia, the growing underground assets of oil, gas and minerals,is a bounty which over the next decade will see incredable wealth and power for Russia.China,is presently buying mountains of minerals from around the world, to electrifiy their entire continent and create living spaces and urban building projects across the entire spectrum of China.It is estimated that more than 50 percent of China's population will become urbanised by 2010.The mass migration of China's population into their cities is being seen in other developing countries around the world.Including The Gambia.It therfore becomes apparent that, millions of farmers are leaving the land in search of greener pastures in the manufacuring industry located in large towns and cities.
This low priority towards food production, with its attached poverty for the farmers,is a balance that those tasked with interrogating these growing problems have not yet remedied.Who can blame the farmer who can earn three times as much working in a factory and work only half the hours?Therefore as food becomes scarce..it becomes more expensive.This is one of the first rules of capitalism....Supply and demand.
 
The sub prime mortgage fiasco,is a much less significant problem, although it is serving as a catalist  to progress a much larger problem....the domino effect.This amongst confidence in the Global financial market place.For several years ,Banks and lending institutions have been recording massive increases in profits.Much of this lending is based on risk assessment.The normal criteria to gain a mortgage,is recognised as someone beeing able to easily meet the repayments over an extended term of say 25 Years or more.However, banks became increasingly willling to lend to borrowers whose incomes were suspect or did not ordinarily meet the acknowledged criteria.You could perhaps forgive a Bank for taking the view that Increasing House prices by say 10% per annum,would very soon, enable the suspect borrower to reach equity fairly quickly.This would negate the short term risk factor to the bank.However,once property prices stagnated or then began to fall.These suspect mortgagees....became exposed.This then has caused the credit squeeze and the unwillingness of Banks to engage in any lending even to other Banks without significant deposits by those given to lending.The present spin being given to this state of affairs is that Property has been over valued for some time and that it is presently falling to its proper market Level.This further expression of capitalism can be described as secured /unsecured lending and borrowing based on collateral and means testing.
 
So therefore, where has all the money gone?Taking account of the financing of fresh air{ a term for lending without collateral or the means to honour the debt} Money does just not simply dissappear.The rise in oil prices is a curious problem.So many factors are given for this phenonomen.Terrorism and risk to supply, especially in the Gulf regions.Political intransigence, the old cause of East versus West.Yet the middle men, the Global oil companies are now recording unprecedented profits.Myself I cannot find a reasonable explanation why a litre of gas is 25 Pence in Trinidad and 119 pence in Britain.
Britain remains a net exporter of energy yet we are paying more per litre than almost any other country in the world.Fuel {when available} in The Gambia is not that much more expensive than Trinidad.Nigeria is the 8th largest producer of crude oil.{High Grade}
Yet it is presently importing oil in large and uneven quantities.Nigeria's greatest problem is that it has let itself sell to the world market and to the refinaries outside its borders when it should have built these refinaries itself.Thereby ensuring a higher capital value for its product and increased profit and above all, a much louder voice in world affairs.The inevitable consequence of rising oil prices is to manufacturing costs,transport,and its passage into all areas of human existance and quality of life.
 
Africa is not equiped to withstand any of these present challenges individually.Myself I applaud the United Nations,The World Bank.The IMF and the many Ngo's and charities that are at the sharp edge of providing for the poor of Africa.But I cannot condemn strongly enough those African leaders who remain under the disguise of democracy whilst clinging to authority and control whilst presiding over torture, murder and the starvation of their people through ignorance and ineptitude.Though I do not agree with everything Colonel Gaddafi has said recently,I must applaud his stand for a much stronger central Government of Africa.I would certainly stand with him for the creation of a United States of Africa.This to my experience..is the only way to engage the poor performance of individual African governments and ensure the accountability of the rogue states that are the scurge of Africa.
It is simply no longer possible for the richer nations to continue to pour money into Africa without an equal response from Africa towards the elimination of poverty through responsible democratic government.
The United Nations response to Global rise in sea temperature and extreme weather conditions has been reassuring.Not withstanding the complacency towards International help from Burma recently.However, the United Nations own report was very critical of its ability to offset the recent crisis in Niger, when 3.6 million people took to the streets complaining of starvation.Around the world their are now frequent reports of riots directly connected to the rise of food prices and  the vulnerable people on low incomes who are caught in this vicious cycle.The danger for Africa is from the richer nations who are now comming to terms with imported problems directly affecting their home economies.How do they balance the books for aid to developing countries from a depreciating home balance sheet.?  Western countries are to face industrial strikes, for more pay from western workers,struggling with domestic rises in the cost of living.The perfect storm is a term that may well apply to the inbalance of the worlds economy.Those economists predicting that this situation is only temporary,beggars belief.I believe the underlying trends and causation goes much deeper than this.
As a capitalist myself,I have come to acknowledge the hard reality of this system that favours the rich and the clever.The moderation of capitalism,is through central government and taxation,that can smooth out the disparagy of the vulnerable against the successful.It is now unreasonable to count any nation as a separate issue which can be modified to advantage in favour of the vulnerable.The Global economy is now just that.What happens in China is as important as what happens in Africa.All countries are now party to this situation of rising oil prices,under food production and squeezed venture capital.Some years ago I read a report which compared Ghana and India since Independance.India has moved to position of one of the worlds stronger economies whilst Ghana has remained well behind in terms of development.Yet both these countries achieved Independance at around the same time.Though I acknowledge the improvements that Ghana has achieved over many other Africa countries.When I hear African leaders blaming America or Britain for their present condition I weep for Africans.Thankfully there are many educated Africans who do not agree with their uneducated African leaders ,whose education in total was less than the average secondry school in western countries.I doubt many,could read a balance sheet let alone write a letter.The next generation of Africans will have education and through this there may come progress.In the meantime the status quo for Africans can only get worse.I fear that the good will from the west towards Africans, and the children will not sucome to withdrawn to further assistance by what is presently dominating the world news.Africa should hang its head in shame.If the world recession becomes the reality that many fear....It will be those western nations who have retained a manufacturing base that will lead their economies out of this poor position.I have said that the carte blanche european legislation governing employment including the minimum wage,to the British enterprise market,will hand to Germany and France an advantage that they could not achieve through wars throughout history.The average cost of starting a business in the U.K. is now 10 times higher than before we were persuaded to take this legislation.It is high time that Britain took the lead and the moral high ground to promote a safer world and an end to its festering problems.
Sanctions are not the answer.It requires strong leadership and a moral crusade for justice.
                 
                                                                                                 I remain Michael...U.K.