The Coalition should also consider the reverse process. There is what we call one-step backward two steps forward. Forget the convention selection process, forget the seven parties involve, forget the flag bearer. What is important is, what is the best winning formula. The coalition pundits keep saying Mama Kandeh should forgo his candidature and follow the Coalition but what stop them from thinking the reverse process by asking the coalition to forgo their candidature and join a Mama Kandeh/Coalition ticket?
I know by saying the above statement the first reactions might attract insults; the second reactions might attract reflections and the third reactions will attract approval. Here are the reasons why I put forward the above proposal.
Both candidates are in the opposition and vying to unseat Jammeh.
Both candidates come from different party affiliations. Mama Kandeh hails from the APRC ranks and Adama Barrow hails from the UDP/Coalition ranks.
Adama Barrow will retain all the votes from opposition party militants, sympathizers and some of the last elections voter apathy. Going by the statistics of the 2011 elections results, Adama Barrow has 28% and will attract some of the 17% voter apathy of 2011. This will give Adama Barrow a winning chance of 28+17= 45% of potential voters.
Mama Kandeh on the other hand will draw most of his votes from the APRC and the last elections voter apathy of 17%. APRC scored 72% of the votes cast in 2011. If Mama Kandeh can draw 50% of the APRC votes plus 17% of the last elections voter apathy that will him give a winning chance of 50+17= 67% of potential voters.
If the above statistics are anything to go by, Mama Kandeh with 67% chances is greater than Adama Barrow’s 45% chances. Projections of course are never 100% accurate but as in any feasibility studies it depicts the nearest true picture of the subject study.
Since politics is not a static process we should also consider the reverse process of asking Adama Barrow/Coalition to give way and create a new dynamic of Mama Kandeh/Coalition ticket.
As I mentioned earlier we should bury our sentiments and adapt reality. The ultimate objective being to remove Jammeh by democratic means, freedom of choice plays a great role in any democratic elections. Since we have all agreed that we will not boycott this election then our best bet is to choose the best candidate likely to win the APRC.
If there is anything in politics that Gambians can learn from is the recent US elections.
I rest my case.
Written By Baboucarr Bojang.