Based on the total number of registered voters of 886, 578 as at 19th October 2016 an increase of 11.25% over the number of voters registered in 2011; we conducted a poll last at the weekend when all the political parties were campaigning in the provinces.
It has to be noted that the polls were carried out discreetly due to the fear factor prevalent in the country. With 7 Administrative Areas and Brikama Administrative Area having the largest number of registered voters (281, 115), we took note of the certain variables that can affect our sampling: the president’s home town, ethnicity and the level of unbiased political awareness.
Based on the above, we randomly selected 3 towns in each of the LGA Administrative Area except Kanifing Administrative Area which has no detailed breakdown of its towns. According to the IEC figures Kanifing has 382, 096 registered voters; Banjul 22, 731; Brikama 281, 115; Kerewan 101, 717; Mansakonko 49, 198; Janjaburay 116, 675 and Basse Administrative Area 115, 185.
From the welter of the IEC figures we polled 20 people from each Administrative area in the top towns within each region, the results are shocking. It has to be said that this was done secretly to avoid putting our volunteer pollsters in danger of arrest. However, we have factored a margin of error of 3 to 5% depending on the ethical composition of the area.
- When asked who they will chose for president on December 1, 2016?
– Adama Barrow (54%)
– Yaya Jammeh (41%)
– Mama Kandeh ( 3%)
– Don’t Know ( 2%)
- Who can unite the country?
– Adama Barrow (75%)
– Mama Kandeh (20%)
– Yaya Jammeh (03%)
– Not Sure (02%)
- Who can handle the economy better ?
– Adama Barrow (67%)
-Mama Kandeh (38%)
– Yaya Jammeh (05%)
- Do you want two terms limit for the presidency?
Not Sure 2%
- Do you want Gambia to continue with Constitutional rule or changed to Sharia ?
97% Say yes to Constitutional rule
less than 2% Say No.
- Do you want the presidency to rotate within the regions?
02% Not Sure
These figures were randomly selected and statistically other factors such as tribal affiliation, crony-ism, job security and most significantly, those in the armed and security forces were not included for obvious reasons.
It was also discovered that out of the 1422 total polling stations, 427 are located in the Brikama area which is 30% of the entire IEC stations wil be found in the Fonis, Kombo East, North and South. This is significant. Kanifing has 287 voting centres whilst the number of IEC polling stations in Basse is 193, a region that has 2070 square kilometers, the highest area in the country.
Looking into the figures given to us by the IEC, Jammeh was re-elected in 2011 thanks to a voter turn out of 83%. This time around we are expecting a figure more than that. Can we trust the IEC numbers? The devil should be in the details. Our able statisticians will look deeper to find the devil. All indications are that Yaya Jammeh is in his hottest election contest. Will he surrender peacefully if defeated?
Stay tuned for more details.
Editors note: The above polling does not necessarily represent the position of the Freedom Newspaper. It was gathered by some professionals on the ground. Thanks for your attention.